At Empreus Coffee, we’re passionate about bringing the rich, vibrant flavors of Kenyan coffee to the world. However, the ongoing global tariff wars are casting a shadow over the coffee industry, particularly for Kenyan producers and exporters. As trade policies shift and new tariffs emerge, the ripple effects are felt deeply in Kenya’s coffee-growing regions. In this blog post, we explore how these tariff wars are impacting Kenyan coffee producers and exporters, and what it means for the future of our beloved industry.
The Tariff Landscape and Kenyan Coffee
Kenya’s coffee sector is a cornerstone of its economy, with coffee being one of the country’s top agricultural exports. In 2024, Kenya exported goods worth $737.3 million to the U.S., a significant portion of which included coffee. However, recent trade developments, such as the U.S. imposing a 10% export tariff on Kenyan goods, are creating new challenges. This tariff, combined with the impending expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, threatens to disrupt Kenya’s access to key markets like the U.S., where coffee has historically enjoyed duty-free entry.
Tariff wars, driven by protectionist policies, are not just about taxes—they reshape global supply chains, alter market competitiveness, and affect the livelihoods of millions. For Kenyan coffee producers, mostly smallholder farmers, and exporters, these changes are more than economic statistics; they’re a matter of survival.
Implications for Kenyan Coffee Producers
1. Reduced Profit Margins
Smallholder farmers, who produce about 75% of Kenya’s coffee, are particularly vulnerable. The 10% U.S. tariff increases the cost of Kenyan coffee in the American market, potentially reducing demand. Exporters may respond by offering lower prices to farmers to maintain competitiveness, squeezing already thin profit margins. For many farmers, this could mean less income to invest in quality improvements or even to sustain their farms.
2.Market Uncertainty
The threat of tariffs creates volatility in global coffee prices. For instance, Arabica prices recently surged to $4.30 per pound before dropping amid tariff-related panic. This uncertainty makes it difficult for producers to plan for the future, as they face fluctuating returns and unpredictable demand. At Empreus Coffee, we’ve seen how such instability can discourage farmers from adopting sustainable practices that require long-term investment.
3.Pressure to Diversify
With traditional markets like the U.S. becoming less predictable, producers may need to explore alternative markets, such as the EU or China, where coffee demand is growing. However, these markets come with their own challenges, like stringent environmental regulations in the EU or the need for significant marketing efforts in China. For small-scale farmers, pivoting to new markets is no small feat.
Challenges for Kenyan Coffee Exporters
1.Loss of Competitiveness
The additional 10% tariff makes Kenyan coffee more expensive compared to coffee from countries not facing similar duties. This could push U.S. buyers toward other origins, like Brazil, which benefits from robust infrastructure and diversified production. Exporters, already navigating a complex colonial-era auction system, now face the added burden of competing in a tariff-heavy environment.
2.Supply Chain Disruptions
Tariffs increase the cost of doing business, from shipping to warehousing. Exporters may struggle with higher freight costs and delays, especially if trade tensions escalate globally. These disruptions can erode trust with international buyers, who rely on timely deliveries of high-quality Kenyan coffee.
3.Retaliatory Tariffs and Trade Barriers
Tariff wars often lead to tit-for-tat responses. If Kenya or other African nations impose retaliatory tariffs, it could further complicate trade dynamics. Exporters might find themselves caught in a web of reciprocal trade barriers, making it harder to maintain stable partnerships with global roasters and importers.
A Silver Lining? Opportunities Amid the Chaos
While the tariff wars pose significant challenges, they also present opportunities for Kenyan coffee stakeholders to adapt and innovate:
-Strengthening Regional Trade: The East African Community (EAC) could become a more critical market for Kenyan coffee, reducing reliance on volatile Western markets.
-Value-Added Processing: Investing in local processing—like roasting and branding—could help Kenya capture more value before export, though high tariffs on processed coffee in markets like the U.S. (10-15%) remain a hurdle.
-Government Support: Recent reforms in Kenya’s coffee sector, aimed at breaking up cartels and improving transparency, could empower producers and exporters to negotiate better terms in global markets.
- Sustainability as a Selling Point: Kenyan coffee’s reputation for quality and unique flavor profiles (think currant-heavy Nyeri beans) can attract premium buyers willing to pay above tariff-driven price hikes, especially in specialty coffee markets.
What Empreus Coffee Is Doing
At Empreus Coffee, we’re committed to supporting Kenyan producers and exporters through these turbulent times. We’re working closely with cooperatives to ensure fair prices for farmers, advocating for sustainable practices that enhance resilience, and exploring new markets to diversify our reach. By connecting directly with consumers through our platform (https://empreuscoffee.odoo.com), we aim to tell the story of Kenyan coffee—its heritage, its challenges, and its unmatched quality.
The tariff wars are reshaping the global coffee trade, and Kenyan producers and exporters are feeling the heat. While challenges like reduced margins, market uncertainty, and supply chain disruptions loom large, there’s also a chance to rethink strategies, from diversifying markets to investing in value-added products. At Empreus Coffee, we believe in the resilience of Kenya’s coffee community. Together, we can navigate these storms and continue sharing the unparalleled taste of Kenyan coffee with the world.
Call to Action
Love Kenyan coffee? Visit https://empreuscoffee.odoo.com to explore our range of ethically sourced beans and support the farmers behind every cup. Share this post to spread awareness about the challenges facing Kenya’s coffee industry, and let’s keep the conversation brewing!